Economic forecasts point to rapid growth of the United States economy during this year 2021. When the coronavirus crisis is not over and there are regions of the world that seem to worsen, the two great global economic giants show signs of strength and rapid expansion.
The Chinese recovery seems to be followed by that of the United States, with forecasts by the Monetary Fund of more than 6% growth. Let's see in more detail what these perspectives are based on and how they can positively affect us in the near future.
US economy: from major crises to major recoveries
Crises or cyclical periods of growth and depression are an intrinsic part of the very nature of the capitalist economy. And the United States economy has been its highest representative for almost 100 years, so studying its post-crisis recovery periods is like studying the basic book of the world market economy.
But within crises there are cyclical and there are catastrophic ones, and it is clear that the current depression caused by the coronavirus is one of the latter. Comparable to
Great Depression of 1929, and of greater impact than the oil crisis in the 70s or the mortgage crisis of 2008. The economic depression in which we have been immersed since March 2020 - and which is still continuing - will be remembered as one of the fiercest and tragic experiences lived by the American giant.
But that same economic story also shows us the immense resilience of the American economy. Thanks to its financial muscle, to the constant capacity for innovation and improvement, and why not, to the resistance and will of the millions of workers who support it, the American economy has also given examples of extraordinary recoveries after deep depressive periods. And the examples after the year 1929 or 2008 clearly show this to us.
Well, when we are still physically and mentally immersed in this terrible economic, health and social crisis, signs are already beginning to appear that indicate that the recovery, when it finally takes off, has the appearance that it will be spectacularly fast, notoriously strong and extraordinarily solid. The latest macroeconomic data from the US economy are beginning to give us clues to prepare for what is to come: a fast-paced recovery. Let's see what reliable data we can rely on to be optimistic.
International Monetary Fund: "there are reasons for optimism"
Economic forecasts are available daily in all economic newspapers, so we must always look at those that come from reliable sources. The International Monetary Fund does not like many people, but there is no doubt that it is not usually wrong in its short and medium term forecasts, since they handle the best data. And what the IMF asserts in its latest January 2021 report is pretty clear: The US economy will exceed its pre-pandemic size when growth reaches 6.4% this year. The rebound of the American leader will help the world economy expand by 6% in 2021, which represents an improvement of 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous IMF forecast. This institution believes that there are two reasons behind this expected push: the success of vaccination in the United States, and the large amount of dollars that the new Biden government has promised to introduce into the North American economy. With an amount in excess of 1.9 trillion dollars ... "the new fiscal package of the new administration is expected to give a strong boost to growth in the United States in 2021 and provide considerable positive effects to its trading partners," the same report details. of this organism.
Not only the IMF trusts a fast and strong recovery in 2021, also the powerful Federal Reversal trusts it. According to its president, Jerome Powell, the economy of the United States has taken cruising speed entering the spring thanks to the growing confidence of North American consumers in their own economy. These estimates broadly coincide with the expectations of some Wall Street traders, who interpret the good health of the stock market with those expectations, as if investors were quite clear about what is to fall.
Of course, all this is estimates, studies, predictions ... and many citizens do not trust only words, especially when their situation is very precarious and they see their jobs, the payment of their mortgages, the future of their businesses in danger.
Well, to send a reassuring message here is an irrefutable fact: the employment data. The United States added 916,000 jobs in March, the biggest gain in seven months, according to Labor Department data. A real news that attests that the optimistic forecasts seem to be already being fulfilled. The increase in jobs increases the desire to consume, and therefore the consumer price index, the well-known CPI also increased in March at the fastest pace in more than 8 and a half years, according to the same data from the Department of Labor published on Tuesday. A high CPI can carry a high risk of inflation, a handicap that for now does not seem to matter much. What is really important is to restart the engine of the American economy, and to get that momentum to drag the rest of the world economy behind it. Powell himself and other Fed officials affirm that a period of higher inflation will not affect monetary policy, and the central bank will maintain its monetary support until the crisis is over, regardless of a rise in prices during the first months of the recuperation.
Recover the economy, society and health
The new economic perspectives must be accompanied by a relentless fight against the virus itself and its consequences, in order to avoid any stoppage in this momentum. And thus achieve that not only the large economies, but also the medium and small ones can benefit from a recovery that illuminates a brighter future for humanity. The United States must lead that change, and ensure that it is not left alone in the economy, it must also bring benefits to health and society.